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How would the climate change negotiations evolve in the coming 10 years? A scenario set that explores the different pathways that negotiations on Climate change will take in the next 10 years. Will there be multilateral agreements lead by the UN, or bilateral agreements, will countries or companies be in the lead, will this result in a new economic order, etc.
= Group Members =
 
== Group Members ==
 
[[Bastian Wollenschein]]<br>
[[Bastian Wollenschein]]<br>
[[Rohit Patnekar]]<br>
[[Rohit Patnekar]]<br>
Line 9: Line 6:
[[Rachit Tayal]]<br>
[[Rachit Tayal]]<br>


== Data/Numbers ==
= Numbers That Matter Presentation =
 
[[Antiretroviral_Therapy_Programme_for_South_Africa|ART Programme in South Africa]]
 
= Introduction =
[[File:Unfccc.jpg|thumb| UNFCCC |300px]]
[[File:Cop16.jpg|thumb| COP-16, Cancun|300px]]
 
Climate forms a very critical part of the ecosystem that sustains life on earth and it is changing rapidly due to human activity. Almost every strategic decision today is in some way dependent on how the climate change would evolve in coming years. Although the extent of change and its consequences are being investigated by scientist, the action lies within the jurisdiction of the national governments and any success depends on their collaboration and leadership. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the joint treaty that looks into the aspect of reducing green house gases by emission reduction and ensuring economic growth in tandem. Despite major efforts from several nations no concrete steps in emission reductions have emerged till now, the future of these negotiations is critical to rationally understand the uncertainties involved and thereafter devise a strategy that fits all probably futures.<br><br>
Hence, on this page we explore the different possibilities for the climate change negotiation by asking:'' �How would the climate change negotiations evolve in the coming 10 years?�''<br><br>
Therefore, this scenario set explores the different pathways that negotiations on Climate change will take in the next 10 years. <br><br>
 
= The Focal Issue =
----
'''How would the climate change negotiations evolve in the coming 10 years?''' <br>
----
<br>
<br>
 
= Scenario Tree =
[[File:CLimate change scenario tree.jpg|600px|thumb| centre |Scenario Tree]]
 
= Scenario Stories =
The following are the four scenario stories detailing different futures for climate change negotiations in 2020:<br>
*;[[Stalemate]]
:''Deadlock among stake holders''
*;[[G20]]
:''Multilateral Agreement through G20''
*;[[A Lost Purpose]]
:''Negotiations succeed but earth dies''
*;[[Mardi Gras]]
:''Negotiations succeed & earth survives''
 
= Stakeholder Analysis =
== Countries ==
1. [[US]]<br>
2. [[EU]]<br>
3. [[China]]<br>
4. [[India]]<br>
5. [[Brazil]]<br>
6. [[Russia]]<br>
7. [[South Africa]]<br>
8. [[OPEC]]<br>
9. [[Island Nations]]<br>
10. [[Japan]]<br>
 
== Other Stake Holders ==
1. [[IPCC]]<br>
2. [[NGOs]]<br>
3. [[Media]]<br>
4. [[Lobbyists]]<br>


=System diagram=
184 countries ratified Kyoto Protocol as of January 2009<br>
Kyoto Protocol will expire in 2012<br>
Mechanisms of Kyoto protocol:<br>
*[[Emissions Trading]]
:
*[[Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)]]
:
*[[Joint Implementation (JI)]]
:


== Questions to research ==
[[File:Systems_CCN.JPG|200px|]]<br>
1. Current state of negotiations and how do you see it evolving in 10 years?<br><br>


2. Why the negotiations are neccesary?<br>
Separate subsystems for the main negotiations participants could be found under the Countries section above
The world need to set a new target after Kyoto Protocol and Copenhagen Accord. And also because only 25% of participants take the responsibility during Copenhagen meeting, the negotiations are needed without any doubts.<br><br>


3. Who are the major parties trying to slow down the proccess? <br>
= Questions to research =
OPEC member countires and U.S.<br><br>


How the negotiations are being pursued by different parties?<br>
==The negotiation process==
U.S. won't change their position in the future.<br><br>
1. [[What is a current state of negotiations process?]]<br>
2.[[ Why the negotiations are necessary and so important?]]<br>
3. [[How the negotiations are being pursued by different parties and who are the major parties trying to slow down the proccess?]] <br>
4. [[How does the negotiation proccess work?]]<br>
5. [[Could an agreement upon GHG reduction be reached outside of the UN (UNFCCC)? (I.e. within the context of another group of countries.)]]<br>
6. [[Who are the members of a team representing a country at these negotiations?]]<br>


4. How does the negotiation proccess work?<br>  
==Stakeholder in the negotiations==
Basically, they have negotiation meetings in every working day in the EU organization. After all the EU member make a deal, they starts processing regin to regin or regin to country engotiations in each international climate change meeting.<br><br>
7. [[What is the position of the Netherlands in climate negotiations and how is the country affected by climatic change?]]<br>
8. [[What is the position of oil producing countries in the negotiations?]]<br>
9. [[Role of corporations in the negotiations?]]<br>
10. [[Role of media?]]<br>
11. [[Who will drive this more going forward?]]<br>
12. [[In EU climate change organization, do you have negotiations between members?]]<br>
13. [[Who has better relationship with Netherlands in climate change negotiation aspect?]]<br>


5. Do you see the negotiations are moving out of UN?<br>
==Events as driving forces==
6. What is the position of the Netherlands in these negotiations?<br> For Netherlands, climate change is not only a climate issue but also a security issue (rising sea level).Besides, The cost to achieve green gas reduction is only 0.6% GDP, which is much less than what public image. <br><br>
14. [[Did the recent finance crisis affect the climate change negotiations?]]<br>
15. [[What other topics could switch public focus from climate change issue?]]<br>
16. [[What kind of numbers are the negotiations target?]] <br>
17. [[What is the role of technology?]]<br>


7. How much power have oil producing countries?<br>
==Independent questions==
They do not consider the climate change seriously and the aggreement will affect their economic a lot, they are currently the main power to slow the negotiation process.<br><br>
18. [[Is there a real evidence of climate change happening?]]<br>
19. [[Is the gap between government policy and negotiation target/result huge?]]<br>
20. [[Is there any risk for climate change negotiation?]]<br><br>
<br>


8. How current financial crysis changed positions of different parties in the negotiations?<br>
= Driving forces =
Governments changed their focus from climate change issue to reduce unemployment rate, for example.<br><br>


9. Who are the members of a team representing a country at these negotiations?<br>
== Environmental Driving Forces ==
The team is generally a delegation consisting of politicians, diplomats, technical experts and they represent their country (European Union incase of Europe) in the negotiations. They are bound by a framework on which clauses to accept and reject based on the discussions they have had with their country (EU incase of Europe) leaders.
1. [[Greenhouse gas increase]]<br>
2. [[Catastrophes_-_Acts_of_God|Catastrophes - Acts of God]]<br>


== Political Driving Forces ==
1. [[Expiration of Kyoto protocol]]<br>
2. [[Increasing Commitment from China]]<br>
3. [[Position of US|Increasing involvement of US]]<br>
4. [[Position of developing nations| Increasing involvement of developing nations]]<br>


10. Who will drive this more going forward?<br>  
== Societal Driving Forces ==
There is no clear indication as to who would drive this discussion in Mexico (Nov 2010) and in future. One thought is that powerful countries such as USA or Europe may drive it and other thought is developing nations such as China and India may be the ones giving these negotiations a direction going forward<br>
1. [[Urbanisation]]<br>
2. [[Increasing influence of media]]<br>
3. [[Initiative from cities]]<br>
4. [[Dynamics of Public Support]]<br>


11. Role of corporations in the negotiations?<br>
== Economic Driving Forces ==
Role of corporations is never seen directly during the negotiations. These corportations generally work behind the scene and are very active particularly in developing nations. They generally try to influence the country delegations on which clauses of LCA to accept and which to reject based on the business benefits (or problems) they envisage. The other thought is that going forward these are the ones who would be majorly hit incase of any major disaster and thus may force their governments to act and act fast on climate change.
1. [[Carbon Trading, Finances and related Economics]]<br>
2. [[Position of Corporates]]<br>
3. [[Bilateral Trade]]<br>
4. [[Oil Supply and Demand Dynamics]]<br>


== Technological Driving Forces ==
1. [[Advancement in Nuclear Power Generation]]<br>
2. [[Development of Cheaper & Efficient Solar Panels]]<br>
3. [[Development of Alternate Energy Sources]]<br><br>
<br>


12. Role of media?<br>
= Useful sources =
Media is a big stakeholder in Climate Change negotiations and its role is critical. Recent coverage (almost real time) of Copenhagen summit and the ongoing coverage of BP oil spill in Gulf of Mexico is a clear indication that media will be involved and will guide the actions of the head of states during the negotiations.


==Books==
-Daniel Erasmus, The future of ICT in financial services, DTN Press, Amsterdam, 2008


13. What other topics could switch public focus from climate change issue?<br>
==Webpages organizations==
The answer will be related to whole social or economic situation at the specific moment. For example, the rising financial crisis caused most of the countries changing their policy priorites.<br><br>
-[http://unfccc.int/2860.php United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]<br>
14. What kind of numbers are the negotiations target? <br>
-[http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php Kyoto Protocol]<br>
Two major numbers are the targets. One is the climate related numbers, such as the reduction amount of green gas, another number is about the budget, like the budget using to support developing countries according to copenhagen accord. <br><br>
-[http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization.htm Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]<br>
15. What is the role of technology?<br>
-[http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.htm#1 IPCC 4th assessment report]<br>
Technology is a factor to push positive negotiation results. However, new technology dose not mean lower cost for reduce green gas, and therefore the synergy of applying new technology plays a more important role.<br><br>
-[http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf Summary for Policy Makers]<BR>
16. In EU climate change organization, do you have negotiations between members? and who<br>
-[http://www.erim.eur.nl/ERIM/Research/Centres/Sustainability_and_Climate_Research_%28SCR%29 ERIM SCR from RSM]<br>
The negotiations between EU members happens in every morning.<BR><BR> 
17. Who has better relationship with Netherlands in climate change negotiation aspect?<br>
Besides EU member countries, Netherlands also has good relationship with other non-EU countries, such as Indonesia, Colombia, and Mexico.<br><br>
18. Is there a real evidence of climate change happening?<br>
19. Is the gap between government policy and negotiation target/result huge?<br>
EU has smaller gap comparing to U.S. and China. It is because the EU government policy is made accoridng to the negociation result.<br><br>
20. Is there any risk for climate change negotiation?<br>
One of the risk is the public voice, which usually is influenced by media.


== The Focal Issue ==
==Articles and protocols==
How would the climate change negotiations evolve in the coming 10 years? <br>
-[http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2007/Post-2012ClimatePolicyScenarios.html Post-2012 Climate Policy Scenario]<br>
-[http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3204.htm Netherlands]<br>
-Annual European Community greenhouse gas
inventory 1990�2007 and inventory report 2009[http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/european-community-greenhouse-gas-inventory-2009/european-community-ghg-inventory-2014-full-report.pdf ]<BR>
-[http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2009/climate_change_excerpt.pdf Climate change except by region or country, by IEA]<br>
-[http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2010/0406/comm/criekemans_copenhagen.html Post Copenhagen from a geopolitical perspective]<br>
-The AWG-LCA n�11 from Aug 2010[http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/awglca12/eng/14.pdf]<br>
-Summary of the above [http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/awglca11/eng/08.pdf]<br>
-[http://ec.europa.eu/trade/creating-opportunities/bilateral-relations/countries/china/ EU Commission on trade with China]<br>
-[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/21/dutch-troops-to-pull-out_n_470708.html]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_attack_on_Iraq Attack_on_Iraq]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Enduring_Freedom Operation Enduring Freedom]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Afghanistan_(2001%E2%80%93present) War in Afghanistan]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9/11]<br>
-[http://across.co.nz/WorldsWorstDisasters.html]<br>
-[http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VFV-3XR2V33-6&_user=10&_coverDate=10%2F31%2F1999&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1434235932&_rerunOrigin=scholar.google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=caa5fa5558aea88a05f7c941f4a1d8d9]<br>
-[http://unfccc.int/2860.php UNFCCC]<br>
-[http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization.htm IPCC]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization Urbanization]


== Driving forces ==
==Videos==
1. [[Greenhouse gas increase]]<br>
-James Hanson to DTN (confidential therefore not published)<br>
2. [http://www.scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Catastrophes_-_Acts_of_God Catastrophes - Acts of God]<br>
-[http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/heat/view/ Smith, Martin; Heat from the U.S.]<br>
3. Urbanisation<br>
-[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZwzG20O4s8 Meet the BINGOs]<br>
4. Increasing influence of media<br>
-[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfhKx6Byjrw The Carbon Market Lobby]<br>
5. Expiration of Kyoto protocol<br>
-[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLHLNywrPBg The Oil and Coal Lobbies]<br>
6. Oil Supply and Demand Dynamics<br>
-[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jl7nc4UfP3I The Agriculture Lobby]<br>
7. Increasing Commitment from China<br>
-[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eoSUoENIpk The Electricity and Gas Lobbies]<br>
8. Position of US<br>
-[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRQKfLj-598 The Alternative Energy Lobby]<br>
9. Position of developing nation<br>
-[http://www.danwei.org/featured_video/hans_rosling_on_chinas_rise.php Hans Rosling on China]<br>
10. Dynamics of Public Support<br>
-[http://www.gapminder.org/videos/gapcasts/gapcast-2-urbanization/ Hans Rosling on urbanization]
11. Carbon Trading, Finances and related Economics<br>
12. Innovation in Technology and Energy<br>
13. Position of Corporates<br>


== Useful sources ==
==Data and graphs==
1. [http://unfccc.int/2860.php United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Carbon_History_and_Flux_Rev.png Carbon history]<br>
2. [http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php Kyoto Protocol]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Global_Carbon_Emissions.svg Carbon emissions]<br>
3. [http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization.htm Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CO2_increase_rate.png Co2 increase]<br>
4. [http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.htm#1 IPCC 4th assessment report]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Major_greenhouse_gas_trends.png GHG trends]<br>
5. [http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf Summary for Policy Makers]<BR>
-[http://unfccc.int/files/ghg_data/ghg_data_unfccc/image/pjpeg/trends_excluding_2009.jpg GHG trends according to UNFCCC]<br>
6. [http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2007/Post-2012ClimatePolicyScenarios.html Post-2012 Climate Policy Scenario]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters List of natural disasters]<br>
7. [http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3204.htm Netherlands]<br>
8. Annual European Community greenhouse gas
[http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/european-community-greenhouse-gas-inventory-2009/european-community-ghg-inventory-2014-full-report.pdf ]<BR>
9. [http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2009/climate_change_excerpt.pdf Climate change except by region or country, by IEA]

Latest revision as of 23:14, 1 November 2021

Group Members

Bastian Wollenschein
Rohit Patnekar
Sergey Kharebov
Ling-Chin Fan
Rachit Tayal

Numbers That Matter Presentation

ART Programme in South Africa

Introduction

UNFCCC
COP-16, Cancun

Climate forms a very critical part of the ecosystem that sustains life on earth and it is changing rapidly due to human activity. Almost every strategic decision today is in some way dependent on how the climate change would evolve in coming years. Although the extent of change and its consequences are being investigated by scientist, the action lies within the jurisdiction of the national governments and any success depends on their collaboration and leadership. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the joint treaty that looks into the aspect of reducing green house gases by emission reduction and ensuring economic growth in tandem. Despite major efforts from several nations no concrete steps in emission reductions have emerged till now, the future of these negotiations is critical to rationally understand the uncertainties involved and thereafter devise a strategy that fits all probably futures.

Hence, on this page we explore the different possibilities for the climate change negotiation by asking: �How would the climate change negotiations evolve in the coming 10 years?�

Therefore, this scenario set explores the different pathways that negotiations on Climate change will take in the next 10 years.

The Focal Issue

How would the climate change negotiations evolve in the coming 10 years?



Scenario Tree

Scenario Tree

Scenario Stories

The following are the four scenario stories detailing different futures for climate change negotiations in 2020:

Deadlock among stake holders
Multilateral Agreement through G20
Negotiations succeed but earth dies
Negotiations succeed & earth survives

Stakeholder Analysis

Countries

1. US
2. EU
3. China
4. India
5. Brazil
6. Russia
7. South Africa
8. OPEC
9. Island Nations
10. Japan

Other Stake Holders

1. IPCC
2. NGOs
3. Media
4. Lobbyists

System diagram

Systems CCN.JPG

Separate subsystems for the main negotiations participants could be found under the Countries section above

Questions to research

The negotiation process

1. What is a current state of negotiations process?
2.Why the negotiations are necessary and so important?
3. How the negotiations are being pursued by different parties and who are the major parties trying to slow down the proccess?
4. How does the negotiation proccess work?
5. Could an agreement upon GHG reduction be reached outside of the UN (UNFCCC)? (I.e. within the context of another group of countries.)
6. Who are the members of a team representing a country at these negotiations?

Stakeholder in the negotiations

7. What is the position of the Netherlands in climate negotiations and how is the country affected by climatic change?
8. What is the position of oil producing countries in the negotiations?
9. Role of corporations in the negotiations?
10. Role of media?
11. Who will drive this more going forward?
12. In EU climate change organization, do you have negotiations between members?
13. Who has better relationship with Netherlands in climate change negotiation aspect?

Events as driving forces

14. Did the recent finance crisis affect the climate change negotiations?
15. What other topics could switch public focus from climate change issue?
16. What kind of numbers are the negotiations target?
17. What is the role of technology?

Independent questions

18. Is there a real evidence of climate change happening?
19. Is the gap between government policy and negotiation target/result huge?
20. Is there any risk for climate change negotiation?


Driving forces

Environmental Driving Forces

1. Greenhouse gas increase
2. Catastrophes - Acts of God

Political Driving Forces

1. Expiration of Kyoto protocol
2. Increasing Commitment from China
3. Increasing involvement of US
4. Increasing involvement of developing nations

Societal Driving Forces

1. Urbanisation
2. Increasing influence of media
3. Initiative from cities
4. Dynamics of Public Support

Economic Driving Forces

1. Carbon Trading, Finances and related Economics
2. Position of Corporates
3. Bilateral Trade
4. Oil Supply and Demand Dynamics

Technological Driving Forces

1. Advancement in Nuclear Power Generation
2. Development of Cheaper & Efficient Solar Panels
3. Development of Alternate Energy Sources


Useful sources

Books

-Daniel Erasmus, The future of ICT in financial services, DTN Press, Amsterdam, 2008

Webpages organizations

-United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
-Kyoto Protocol
-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
-IPCC 4th assessment report
-Summary for Policy Makers
-ERIM SCR from RSM

Articles and protocols

-Post-2012 Climate Policy Scenario
-Netherlands
-Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990�2007 and inventory report 2009[1]
-Climate change except by region or country, by IEA
-Post Copenhagen from a geopolitical perspective
-The AWG-LCA n�11 from Aug 2010[2]
-Summary of the above [3]
-EU Commission on trade with China
-[4]
-Attack_on_Iraq
-Operation Enduring Freedom
-War in Afghanistan
-[5]
-[6]
-[7]
-UNFCCC
-IPCC
-Urbanization

Videos

-James Hanson to DTN (confidential therefore not published)
-Smith, Martin; Heat from the U.S.
-Meet the BINGOs
-The Carbon Market Lobby
-The Oil and Coal Lobbies
-The Agriculture Lobby
-The Electricity and Gas Lobbies
-The Alternative Energy Lobby
-Hans Rosling on China
-Hans Rosling on urbanization

Data and graphs

-Carbon history
-Carbon emissions
-Co2 increase
-GHG trends
-GHG trends according to UNFCCC
-List of natural disasters

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