Changing demography in western countries
Description
In the current situation the adaptation of mobile technology is lowest amonst the age group of people over 65. This group als spend the least amount of money on their mobile devices. The kids and teens are the age groups that are most rapidly adapting to newer mobile technologies. The developments in the next 7 years will be twofold. First the group of 65+ people will grow, making the least atractive market bigger. This might be partly set off by the fact that these new 65+ people come from an age group with higher adaptation to mobile technology. Secondly, the groups that are easily accepting new mobile technology will get older and will be able to spend more money on their mobile devices. Overall with the passing of time there number of people completly comfortable with technology will naturally grow, and the group of people uncomfortable with technology will naturally get smaller due to mortality rates.
Enablers
- Passage of time
The passing of time and the mortality of the human being will result in the current generations, that did not grow up with mobile technology, disappearing and being replaced with generations that are. This is not completely true for the changes until 2015, but part of it will be apparant.
Inhibitors
- The gap between poor and rich
With all the new mobile technology having quite steep pricing at the moment and the foreseeable future, not everyone will be able to afford it. This fact combined with the gap between poor and rich that still exists in western countries, in some countries it is even growing, will result in entire demographic groups not being able to afford the new technology.
- Resistance from generation Y
The current techsavvy generation, called generation Y, might not percieve intergrating mobile devices into one. If this generation gives resistance to developments like this the producers will lose money and will have to find other ways to further develop mobile devices.
- High percentage of 50+ people
The current graying of the population, which is only going to speed up in the near future, might have a profound effect on the acceptance and usage of mobile devices. Even people who used mobile devices to their full potential when younger might not see it as usefull anymore when getting older and stop using them. An example of this development, for the netherlands, can be seen in the picure below.
Paradigms
- Old: Entire generations did not grow up with mobile technology. Big parts of these generations never learned to use the new technology and therefor never really adapted the technology.
- New: Newer generations grow up with mobile technology, and with technology in general. They learn to use it as they grow up, most of the time easily surpassing their parents in knowledge and skills that go along with mobile technology.
Timing
1943-1960: Boomers generation - The group of people in their fifthies an above, graying of the population.
1961-1981: Generation X - The current "parent" of the next generation. Most of them capable of using most technological development, but no full acceptance yet.
1982-2002: Generation Y - The youngest generation, mostly seen as techsavvy people. Fully comfortable with all kinds of technological developments. Will most likely lead the way in the acceptance of new mobile devices. Might make or break the future of integration of all sorts of mobile devices into one.
Web Resources
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/11/technology/11cell.html?_r=1&ei=5058&en=f7bd3f488d96e529&ex=1098158400&adxnnl=1&partner=IWON&adxnnlx=1097528413-xoclJnWp27HKSHvwx1134A&oref=slogin
http://www.itfacts.biz/35-of-kids-8-12-own-cell-phones/9213
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation
Go back to Next_generation_mobile_devices_2015