Answers and reflections of discussions on some of the questions

Answers to questions

Are different technologies going to converge? (cable, wifi, Win Max,...)?

"What defines each decade is not a technology's invention, but rather a dramatic shift in price and performance that triggers a sudden burst in diffusion from lab to marketplace." Lunar accommodation is still at the pricey end of the market - and that is unlikely to change by 2020.

This being said, it seems likely that there will be a drive towards convergence to the IP network for many media. This convergence is already happening for telephony, music, internet and some other media and in due course will happen for television and films.

As access to the Internet becomes virtually free, will communication/entertainment become a commodity? If so, how will providers differentiate their products? For what will people be prepared to pay extra?

The means of access to the Internet will become more and more commoditised as wireless technology matures. Consequently, access providers will become little more than a "dumb pipe" and will need to provide additonal services in order to survive. Some may focus on providing entertainment (producing programs for example) and will need to ensure that their program offerings are so compelling that they are irrestible.

Which trend can be identified in social/work behavior?=

Two possible trends:

1- People, mainly rich people, with easy access to technology will move out of the crowded cities preferring remote and quiter areas. In this case technology would change the concept of proximity not only between families and community but also between family members.

 a. The concept of family will be far from the “two parents two children” of the last century. the relationship between adults will be chosen rather than based on economic necessity. 

 b. Webcams might by 2020 be playing the role the telephone did in the 20th century, a vital communication link for families who might live hundreds of miles apart. 

2- Creation of gated communities and “compounds where the knowledge and scientific workers live and work, guarded by armed security men. Outside, visible from the trains and toll-ways that link the Compounds, are the Pleeblands, where people toil, consume and exist in a state of under-educated chronic insecurity. As the hero's father explains to him, it is like a throwback to the days of castles and moated manor houses” Technology will be used to reinforce closed community inaccessible networks and to link the different communities.

What will be the impact of security on communication? Will communication be put under control? Be nationalized?

Global network is becoming an essential commodity in everyday life. Everybody will be able to access and use. Its absence will be a disaster: A broad-ranging survey of technology leaders, scholars, industry officials, and interested members of the public finds that most experts expect attacks on the network infrastructure in the coming decade. Some argue that serious assaults on the internet infrastructure will become a regular part of life.

a) Nearly every piece of legislation in the past five years has gone too far."

b) The possibility of today's anti-crime legislation becoming the planks of tomorrow's repressive state increases with every rise in global tension

c) Simon Davies of Privacy International has an equally bleak take on the state of civil liberties: "The default has clearly shifted from privacy to surveillance. Almost all large government projects attempt to compromise the right of privacy. The proclaimed need for the protection of children and the fight against terrorism has often been shamelessly used as the pretext for privacy invasion."

d) All that technology will be at the service of the government, and by 2020 its use will force us to consider the delicate balance between the freedom of the individual and intrusion into our daily lives by the state.

Over the next 15 years, a growing range of actors, including terrorists, may acquire and develop capabilities to conduct both physical and cyber attacks against nodes of the world’s information infrastructure, including the Internet, telecommunications networks, and computer systems that control critical industrial processes such as electricity grids, refineries, and flood control mechanisms. Terrorists already have specified the US information infrastructure as a target and currently are capable of physical attacks that would cause at least brief, isolated disruptions. The ability to respond to such attacks will require critical technology to close the gap between attacker and defender. A key cyber battlefield of the future will be the information on computer systems themselves, which is far more valuable and vulnerable than physical systems. New technologies on the horizon provide capabilities for accessing data, either through wireless intercept, intrusion into Internet-connected systems, or through direct access by insiders.

Another fascinating new development is Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology - a technology that uses radio waves to automatically identify people or objects - and to communicate their whereabouts- with almost unlimited potential applications. At present use of the technology has been limited - for instance replacing bar codes as the principal means of identifying clothing in shops. Rapid expansion in the technology's use has been hampered to a certain extent by cost implications - RFID tags on clothing cost approximately 25 to 50 cents each at present compared to bar codes which cost a fraction of a cent. Inevitably, however, as costs plummet, use of the technology will become more viable. Its potential is awesome - it could be applied extensively for the benefit of consumers and retailer, tracking shopping habits, reminding you to buy potato chips with hotdogs or keeping track of provisions at home, informing you, for example, that you are almost out of milk. Clearly, therefore, the future looks bright for the RFID industry - but as with all bright future there comes an ominous threat: In a book entitled "Spychips: How Major Corporations and Government Plan to track Your Every Move with RFID", the authors Kathy Albrecht and Liz McIntyr claim that many multinationals collaborate with the government to follow consumers everywhere through the use of RFID tags planted in clothing and belongings. This, of course, could be just the thin end of the wedge - the technology could also be used to spy on and control people in a Big Brother scenario. Albrecht cynically believes that the technology may be the fulfilment of the Mark of the Beast, as prophesied in the Bible's Book of Revelation.

Will working practice change?

As you get back to your desk a red-tinged internal company email message flashes on your computer screen. "Analysis of your urine deposit at 11.24am shows that you have consumed excessive alcohol in the past 24 hours. This is the fourth time in the past month that urine sampling has registered you at excess of 140mg of alcohol per 100ml of blood. This is a formal company notice. You must immediately register for the company alcohol abuse management scheme. Failure to do so will result in the termination of your contract."

A Japanese company has already developed a toilet - targeted for use in large companies - that can analyse whether an employee has recently used illegal recreational drugs such as cocaine or heroin.

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