Difference between revisions of "Academic log"

From ScenarioThinking
Jump to navigation Jump to search
 
(Vyugygduygsda ygsdbjbasdjhb asdhhasdghjasd hasdghsad http://www.zazzle.com/silverstowns#81320 can i get viagra without a prescription - viagra http://www.zazzle.com/gertenhauer#85901 buy cheap Ambien)
 
(8 intermediate revisions by 3 users not shown)
Line 1: Line 1:
==Academic Reflection - Scenario Planning and its pitfalls==
Vyugygduygsda ygsdbjbasdjhb asdhhasdghjasd hasdghsad http://www.zazzle.com/silverstowns#81320 can i get viagra without a prescription - viagra http://www.zazzle.com/gertenhauer#85901 buy cheap Ambien - ambien http://www.zazzle.com/semerjan#94435 buy cheap tramadol tramadol ultram - tramadol http://buycialis.yolasite.com#79255 Cialis order online - cialis http://shine.yahoo.com/channel/none/buy-cialis-best-prices-1040299#78282 cialis in spain - cialis http://shine.yahoo.com/channel/none/buy-viagra-best-prices-on-the-net-1040427#46777 headache viagra - viagra http://www.wikio.com/article/diet-pills-user-reviews-183420459#50874 phentermine 37.5 side effects pregnancy - phentermine http://www.wikio.com/article/buy-cialis-compare-recommended-pharmacy-reviews-191761839#83323 cialis online australia - cialis http://www.wikio.com/article/sildenafil-citrate-user-info-187315718#84848 online viagra prescription - viagra http://www.wikio.com/article/tramadol-ultram-user-reviews-182981345#81957 tramadol online next day - tramadol http://buycialis.yolasite.com/cialis-brand.php#73015 cialis online canada - cialis
 
'''Introduction'''
In 1970s organizations faced with dramatic changes due to many external factors such as technological, societal, environmental, economical and political. Scenario planning has become popular since 1970s when the huge success of the prediction of Shell scenario becomes the talk of everyone.  
 
Three main issues addressed by scenario planning are 1) Consistency and plausibility of the scenarios are taken into account and developed via structured methodology 2) Organizations today are evaluated from the implications of these scenarios 3) A foundation for understanding the future uncertainties is synthesis information of an organization
 
The process of scenario planning includes:  
 
1) Set objectives
When setting the objectives, these issues such as time horizon, geographical scope, business units or product areas, unavoidable constraints, definition and deadline must be taken into account.
 
2) Identify key issues
Key issues such as threats and opportunities to the organization must be explored during scenario planning.
3) Build scenarios
There are several steps in building the scenarios. First brainstorming about the driving forces which may includes business, technology, social and economic factors and then for each driving forces, identify the critical uncertainties and split them into different scenarios.
 
4) Create options
For each scenario, use the scenarios to brainstorm the potential business solutions. Each scenario generates many possible business solutions and a core business plan is developed from the scenario.
 
5) Redefine options
After the business plan has been developed, refine the possible options and balance between the risk and reward that the stakeholders wish to maintain.
6) Maintain learning
In the long term, scenario planning will capture ongoing business learning as it evolves. In short term, an effective early-warning system can be created by establishing processes.
 
 
Common Pitfalls of scenario planning in early 1990s:
1)Predictability of a limited set of factor choices
2)Predictability of theme selection
3)Focus on current/next big issues
4)Typical implicit assumptions
5)Unimaginative presentation of scenarios
 
Common pitfalls of scenario planning in early 2000s include:  
1)The process may drift away from ever reaching hard business decisions, if it is not well designed and tightly managed by an experienced team.  
2)The scenarios may serve to reinforce established views of 'business as usual' unless there is sufficient external challenge.  
3)Practical business decisions cannot be made unless the scenarios are underpinned by facts and sound analysis.  
4)The scenario learning may be quickly forgotten unless the process fully engages stakeholders across the business.  
 
 
References:
1) F.A. O'Brien: Scenario planning -lessons for practice from teaching and learning, Warwick Business School, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
2) http://www.analysys.com/default_acl.asp?Mode=article&iLeftArticle=87&m=&n=

Latest revision as of 02:50, 2 June 2010

Vyugygduygsda ygsdbjbasdjhb asdhhasdghjasd hasdghsad http://www.zazzle.com/silverstowns#81320 can i get viagra without a prescription - viagra http://www.zazzle.com/gertenhauer#85901 buy cheap Ambien - ambien http://www.zazzle.com/semerjan#94435 buy cheap tramadol tramadol ultram - tramadol http://buycialis.yolasite.com#79255 Cialis order online - cialis http://shine.yahoo.com/channel/none/buy-cialis-best-prices-1040299#78282 cialis in spain - cialis http://shine.yahoo.com/channel/none/buy-viagra-best-prices-on-the-net-1040427#46777 headache viagra - viagra http://www.wikio.com/article/diet-pills-user-reviews-183420459#50874 phentermine 37.5 side effects pregnancy - phentermine http://www.wikio.com/article/buy-cialis-compare-recommended-pharmacy-reviews-191761839#83323 cialis online australia - cialis http://www.wikio.com/article/sildenafil-citrate-user-info-187315718#84848 online viagra prescription - viagra http://www.wikio.com/article/tramadol-ultram-user-reviews-182981345#81957 tramadol online next day - tramadol http://buycialis.yolasite.com/cialis-brand.php#73015 cialis online canada - cialis

Retrieved from "https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Academic_log&oldid=167186"