Academic Reflection paper
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Disadvantages
In contrast to these mentioned strengths/advantages, scenario thinking techniques have several weaknesses:
• The practice of scenario is very time-consuming. Therefore, there could be a wish to condense scenario building to a half-day or one day activity. However, this may not give participants enough time.
• A more qualitative approach has to put a strong emphasis on the selection of suitable participants/ experts, and in practice this could not be an easy task to fulfil.
• Further, it should not be overlooked that a deep understanding and knowledge of the field under investigation is absolutely necessary. Data and information from different sources have to be collected and interpreted which makes scenario building even more time-consuming.
• It could be difficult not to focus on black and white scenarios or the most likely scenario (wishful thinking) during the scenario-building process.[2]
Conclusion
Considering the above...Scenario thinking is growing in use—and its use will continue to grow—because it is one of the few proven tools for developing our capacity to understand and manage uncertainty. It is a powerful tool that tests the mind, challenges belief, stretches the spirit, and at its best creates new sources of hope. People who take naturally to scenario thinking are lifelong learners; they believe that the world is continually changing and are forever seeking insight from new places, making new connections, and innovating new solutions. If the next generation of nonprofit leaders routinely uses scenario thinking, the cumulative effects for the sector as a whole will be significant. Civil society organizations must find new ways to create urgency and collective will for addressing large interdependent problems, both old and new. Scenario thinking will not be the only tool for making progress, but it could well become among the most important. In contrast, there is only a small number of studies which analyse the relationship between scenario planning and firm performance or try to evaluate the accuracy of the outcomes of a scenario. Regarding further research on scenario techniques, firstly, there is clearly a gap to be closed. A starting point for an assessment could be to distinguish between content and process and to develop on that basis a method for evaluation. Secondly, scenario building is often considered as primarily a tool for large multinational corporations. To develop a suitable scenario approach for small and medium-sized enterprises on a scientific ground could also be a favourable task for research in this field. Thirdly, scenario techniques may be improved a lot if they are combined with other future methods (like e.g. roadmapping, Delphi, creativity techniques) and a concise mix of methods could also be evaluated.[2]
References
[1]Global Business Network.
http://www.gbn.com/ArticleDisplayServlet.srv?aid=32655
[2]Under Science. http://www.inderscience.com/search/index.php?mainAction=search&action=record&rec_id=6516