A Lost Purpose

Overview

Although the main parties joining the climate change negotitation meetings are the representatives from each countires, other driving forces, such as Catastrophes - Acts of God and Dynamics of Public Support, also play important roles in this scenario.

2010-2013

In 2010 negotiations,we might see the situation that there is no big agreement made but the balance of power to make agreements shifts to few powerful countries - EU, US, and China. In the same period, huge public and media preasure drive countries to take minor steps of climate change policies rather than major decisions to commit the goal of resonable GHG emission reduction amount.

Accroding to IPCC report issued in 2010, the global climate will continue increasing since there is only EU and other countries with minor negotiation power taking the responsibility to reduce GHG emission according to the goals set in the COP16 and CMP6 conferences from 29 November-10 December 2010 in Cancun, Mexico. However, during 2010~2013, the numbers of catastrophes happened will increase dramatically, like the non-stoping rising sea level threaten the securities of island countires (ex Netherlands and UK), and the hugh amouts of economical losses in these catastrophes alarm most of the public, NGO, and media in the world. This louder and louder voice forces some major developed countires to sign inefficient GHG emission reduction agreements. For example, US president election will be held in 2012, and US governemtn might approve several minor climate change policies in COP16& CMP6 conferences in order to compromise public pressure, but the emission reduction target can have little effect to ease the increasing climate; EU might still provide funds to support developing countries in order to puch these developing countries to reduce 20% GHG emission in each year; Several serious catastrophes happened in China might let China to commit a higher GHG emission limit.

In the this period, main countries, including EU, US, and China, will focus on green technology innovation and developing. The green technology investment amount from China will still be the largest green technology investment since 2009.

2014-2018

The results of climate negotiation conference in 2018 will be quite positive and all the main GHG emission prudocing countries might sign the reduction agreement without difficult negotiation processes. The reason why the negotiation will be sucess might be because the situation of clime change gets worse according to IPCC report issued in 2013 and because more and more catastrophes directly threaten people's lives. NGO with Media will become the auditor in climate change issues. However, several factors could end up in a failure result even though the climate change negotitaions process successfully in 2018 Climate change conference:

Low education level of climate change issue will still popular in most of the developing countries. Global economics will still growing becuase of the impressive growth rate of China, India and other developing countries. Besides, the global population will also increase. These above three factors might cause the decrease number of global GHG emission per capita but might result in the increase amount of total GHG emission.

Besieds, although these countries sign the emission reduction argeements in 2018 climate change meeting, not all the countries have the abilities to achieve the target. It is means that the story of Japan's -6% emission target will still exist in this period.

Furthermore, EU, US, and China might promote and export their green technology to other developing or under developing countries in order to balance the cost of reducing GHG emission in their home. Therefore, when relative weak developing countries try to seek renewable energy generation technologies, they might fase the trade-off between national budget flow out and GHG emission reduction. To sum up, the negotiations between countries owning green technologies and others sarching for soultions might cause poor emission reduction achievements.

The worst situation might be that China dose not release sufficient and valid data in public in the vary beginning. Especially from 2009 China already becomes the largest carbon dioxide emissions countries, it is very possible that China government hide other information to keep their face in the international.