4) N@NO

• Population: increase to 9 billion to 2030.
• Energy demand: steady increase, no spikes or fall; in line with population growth.
• Slow growth in alternate energy then a spike in 2015 with a break through technology, increase of competition in the alternate space resulting in a rapid decline of prices. Alternative is for transportation meaning that internal combustion engines are being phased out. Reason for uptake is purely economics – alternatives are now cheaper to manufacture than combustions and cheaper to run.
• Global warming, gradual increase, after alternative technology breakthrough and uptake a flattening and decline – apparently global warming was indeed related to CO2 and humans.
• Oil production follows a slow increase to around 90 billion bbl/year until after the uptake of alternatives for transportation. After this there is a fall as oil remains only in use for minimal power generation and industrial – plastics, fertiliser, pharmaceutical. This is a result of falling demand rather than reserve depletion. By 2030 production is around 30 billion per year (down from 80 billion now). As oil industry is less attractive the crew change problem persists and only conventional sources are used – oil price is not high enough to justify technology R&D for non-conventional and additional E&P.