Internet has no future

Internet has no future. But this perspective may take a bit longer to realize. Say 11 years rather than 10.

Internet has no future in the way we know it nowadays. It took off ten years ago but its development was mainly limited to the growth of bandwidth required to transmit ever more colorful pictures attached to (irrelevant) web pages. Internet, as a source of reliable information, is becoming less reliable. If Google has 8bn of pages in its database while companies start to compete on such dimension how many of them are left behind? How much does it take to find something more complex than a simple birthday of Mr. Lincoln or the capital of Cambodia? And I am not talking about technical difficulties that stretch the problems which are not really solved in a qualitative way - limited address space, "denial of service" attacks, viruses, and spam, just to mention some of them.

Moreover, there is a reasonable limit to the bandwidth that can be absorbed by an average user. For example, nobody nowadays wants to challenge a Compact Disc standard. It just does not make sense. A standard audio CD satisfies needs of all people apart from a bunch of maniacs but let them pay more. A Super-DVD, which will come after a contemporary DVD, will eventually also satisfy the most stringent needs of quality. And those who want to have a full-size cinema screen at home can pay more. So audio and video do not represent a problem. Just pump the hard-disks of web-sites with all the contents you need and forget it. Do you really want to download an absolute extra-high-super-quality movie in a minute? Even if you do, you will eventually get it but I do not think that anybody will really need it.

So what is the problem with our internet? Well, it is just a huge mess. It is not about bandwidth or its availability. It is not about the content or information. Not at all. Or it will be pretty soon not at all. But it is about THE mess. And with this new video/audio/etc. content the mess is increasing exponentially. Therefore, a distributed internet is doomed and some form of a centralized database / processing capacity will emerge. Alternatively, a set of rules may arise to let classify and structure the sheer volume of contents. And, of course, some other solution maybe found which we can not even think of today.

I do not want to dream too much about a potential future structure but in the case of a centralized solution the internet will become absolutely wireless with all information stored in several centralized databanks. These databases will run intelligent (close to AI) search tools which will digest all web-contents whatsoever and provide intelligent answers to full text complex questions or even to simple mental ideas or images. The second solution may evolve as just an interim step on the way to the centralized system. The centralized system will provide efficiency and reliability alongside effective solutions to the wide-spread problems like spam or p2p networks (read copyrights). Access to those databanks will be defined by the computing power or storage capacity at hand of any particular user (remember the bandwidth per se is broadly available and, thus, is not scarce). Since some people will start arguing for privacy, two models of internet (distributed like it is today and centralized) may co-exist for a while. The distributed internet will eventually die out or limit itself to those nuts like the ones who buy vinyl records nowadays on the claim that they provide a better sound quality.

Which features will this future "internet" exhibit in terms of McLuhan theory?

It will obsolete: computer terminals, web-browsers, e-mails, and the general internet we know it nowadays.

It will reverse: the necessity of IT education since interfaces will become so user-friendly and human-oriented (no keyboards, no mice, no windows, and no tomes for dummies or hackers) that no one will need extra skills or knowledge to operate them.

It will enhance: hobbies, interaction, and social life in general since no one will need to spend hours, days, and weeks on searches, typing, and sending or storing.

It will retrieve: travel and other media (e.g. books, real museums, or cinemas) since these resources will become scarce in the virtual world and people will pay to travel and to experience physically.

Will it happen in 10 or 11 years? Lets take a look at bandwidth. 10 year ago, when internet was just gaining some vitality, average transfer rates were around 1kb/s. Nowadays, transfer rates of 1Mb/s do not surprise. So in 10 years we may have 1Gb/s which is fast enough to download the next generation DVD (HD-DVD) in less than one minute. Does Google or MSN qualify as centralized databanks? They claim they use intelligent search engines. Give them another five years and we will cut the crop. You know that "quantity translates into quality"… Wireless connectivity is also becoming a mundane reality. And finally, monkeys, as Daniel told us many times, are capable to communicate with computers without an interface. Who is next? It is already here