Difference between revisions of "The future of e-books in 2017"

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<h1 style="background:#9b98d1; border:1px solid #AAAAAA;padding-left: 10px; height: 1.1 em;">Scenarios</h1>
<h1 style="background:#9b98d1; border:1px solid #AAAAAA;padding-left: 10px; height: 1.1 em;">Scenarios</h1>
=== Scenario 1: Extinction of Traditional Books ===
=== Scenario 1: Extinction of Traditional Books ===
'''2007''' <br>
In 2007, Google books scanning project brings more publicity for e-book industry and more and more people become aware of the new possibilities of e-books. As people are already able to read newspapers online, download music and movies from the Internet, they also start to realize the possibility that they could also read and download e-books anywhere at anytime.  Following the example of Sony, the e-book reader manufactures start utilizing the new possibilities of eInk –technology, and start focusing to develop readability of e-book readers.  <br>
The first cellural-books with rollable display for reading personal information, newspapers and books, launched by Telecom Italia and Polymer Vision announce,  get lot of publicity worldwide. By the end of 2007, due to the war in the middle-east the oil price is rising to almost 100 dollars a barrel and energy is more expensive than decades.<br>
'''2008''' <br>
In 2008 interest towards new e-book readers starts to increase and Sony and its competitors invests big amounts for large marketing campaigns. The new reader is praised by its reading features and Sony is constantly developing its e-book store, based on the same idea that iTunes has become a success. Apple is developing their e-book offering to respond the growing competition. <br>
The growing concern of the global warming and the paper industry speeding the climate change, forces governments to make new strict environmental laws, and also the book readers start to realize the environmental benefits of e-books over printed books. Environmental activists get lot of publicity when campaigning  for e-publishers and against paper industry.<br>
In beginning of the 2008, United States and its allies attack to Iran and Syria, based on the information of terrorist collaboration by the governments. Because of the war, Russian disagrees with the methods used for war, and cuts off the gas to Europe as a respond. <br>
In Christmas 2008, “the hit present” of the Christmas is an e-book reader and the sale rates are high especially in Europe, US and Japan. 
'''2009'''<br>
By the end of the 2009, when the e-book reader manufactures have seen promising sales figures , and many new e-book readers have come to the markets,  the prices of the readers start to decrease.  Traditional book publishers start to bring more e-books to the market and start to develop more interactive content to the e-books, including pictures, videos and sound.  <br>
E-book publishers are trying to promote their own e-book formats  to be a break-through in the markets, but they are starting to realize that maybe on common standard has to be created  before e-books can really take-off. <br>
'''2010'''<br>
In 2010, the most active e-book buyers are educational institutions, libraries and the readers in the age of 16-45. The e-publishers and e-book reader manufactures have finally agreed on one compatible e-book format, called open e-book format. When one standard format has been agreed, the publishers and e-book reader manufactures can focus more on the quality and features of their products, and the prices start decreasing. <br>
Authors are becoming more concerned about their intellectual rights, and publishes and many large IT companies finally forced to start developing DRM that really secures copyrigths.<br>
'''2011-2012'''<br>
In 2012, the sales of the e-books reach the salse numbers of printed books in Europe, US and Japan.  With the help of governmental support, libraries all over the world have increased the offering of the e-books, and the rent percentages of e-books and printed books are 50-50. The prices of the e-book readers have decreased remarkably in 5 years, and prices vary from €100-250, which is affordable to the majority of the people in developed countries.<br>
In 2012, European Union starts to promote the e-book as a main facility for learning. Their goal is to cut costs in education, e-books are not environmentally friendly, the distribution is extremely convenient and updates for older books are totally inexpensive.<br>
Google has gone into a criticized partnership with Amazon were they agreed upon sharing technology and content to able to provide E-Books for a much lower price than competitors.<br>
In 2012, one standardized DRM system has been developed by publishers and leading IT companies that has agreed to make their system available at low cost and let many manage the DRM.  More and more publishers begin to use this low cost DRM system. This standard then soon become the industry standard that the price of e-books continue to go down.<br>
People have become more concerned about their privacy, and e-book stores have to focus on improving the privacy issues in next years.<br>
'''2013-2015'''<br>
Due to the e-book boom, the general interest in literacy has increased, and the active readers have started to create own communities for book reviews, ratings etc. Readers are now fully able to customize their own e-books, add own pictures, videos and sound to make an individual story out of every book.  <br>
On the Internet, active readers have become also active writers. Alone or together with the other literature fans, people can write and publish their own books online, and which the other readers can rate or write own versions to continue or change the story.    <br>
The number of traditional book stores has decreased last years by 40%, and some them have started  “Starbooks” e-book cafes, offering a  meeting point for literature fans. At the same time, number of  e-book shops have increased by 50%.<br>
'''2016-2017''' <br>
In 2017, printed books are basically gone in the developed world, and only some types of the printed books are still published, for example art books and cooking books.  Cheap e-book readers, designed especially for developing world have become popular in Asia, together with increased literacy rate.  The next generations of e-book readers is coming, especially in Japan people are started to download and read their e-books on their smart mobile phones. <br>
By now people are able to read their ebooks online but also have the download ability to read their books when there is no internet access available.
=== Scenario 2: E-books for Niches ===
=== Scenario 2: E-books for Niches ===
=== Scenario 3: Paper, Paper, Paper ===
=== Scenario 3: Paper, Paper, Paper ===

Revision as of 14:41, 29 March 2007

Introduction

When writing systems were invented in ancient civilizations, nearly everything that could be written upon—stone, clay, tree bark, metal sheets—was used for writing. In China,silk was also a base for writing and writing was done with brushes. Many other materials were used as bases: bone, bronze, pottery, shell, etc.Any material which will hold and transmit text is a candidate for books.


Nowadays information technology and the Internet offer total new ways of publishing. For years, newspapers and magazines have been published online, and on 90s also traditional printed books reached digital form. Electronic books or e-books, can now be bought and downloaded from online e-bookstores and be read on computer screen or portable e-book device.

Sony.jpg

Right to read

Client Questions

Future of the Book questions: (All the answers can be read in the Client question analysis section)

  • as the materials that are now published in books are learned through computer screens, what about the form will stay the same and what will change? authorship, editing, presentation style, stored locally?

closely related question:

  • will there be parallel publishing of a book on screen and print, and if so, will they be mostly similar or will it be a largely different production (such as a novel and movie).


  • what will be the role, if any, of scanned books in the future ecology? sales tool? reference work for searching? only old books will be used this way? old books wont be used even on screens by the general public?

different question:

  • certain types of books are large part gone already: books of court opinions, phonebooks, readers guide to periodical literature... Given the types of books that are out there, what will they morph or disappear into a computer service?

-brewster kahle

Team Composition

Research Questions

In our research we have identified 5 different categories, namely:

  1. History (Xin Yu)
  2. Economic Perspective/Value (Raymond)
  3. General Information (Raymond/Sanna)
  4. Prospective usage of books (Bas)
  5. Law, Legislation and Stakeholders (Bauke)

See the research questions section for the actual questions and answers.

Driving Forces

Based on the PEST theory

Political

Economic

Environmental

Social

Technological

Diagrams

Systems Diagram

Version 1

Version 1 of the System Diagram

Here is the final version of the System Diagram for the scenario on the future of the book. The diagram has been changed to give a better view of the system. Further more some relationships have been added between the different elements in the system.

<pagerating from="Poor" to="Good" category="Systems Diagram"> Rate this diagram</pagerating>


Version 0.1

Version 0.1 of the System Diagram

First version of the Systems Diagram, based on the brainstorm session by the group members.
<pagerating from="Poor" to="Good" category="Systems Diagram"> Rate this diagram</pagerating>



Other diagrams

Scenarios

Scenario 1: Extinction of Traditional Books

2007
In 2007, Google books scanning project brings more publicity for e-book industry and more and more people become aware of the new possibilities of e-books. As people are already able to read newspapers online, download music and movies from the Internet, they also start to realize the possibility that they could also read and download e-books anywhere at anytime. Following the example of Sony, the e-book reader manufactures start utilizing the new possibilities of eInk –technology, and start focusing to develop readability of e-book readers.

The first cellural-books with rollable display for reading personal information, newspapers and books, launched by Telecom Italia and Polymer Vision announce, get lot of publicity worldwide. By the end of 2007, due to the war in the middle-east the oil price is rising to almost 100 dollars a barrel and energy is more expensive than decades.

2008

In 2008 interest towards new e-book readers starts to increase and Sony and its competitors invests big amounts for large marketing campaigns. The new reader is praised by its reading features and Sony is constantly developing its e-book store, based on the same idea that iTunes has become a success. Apple is developing their e-book offering to respond the growing competition.

The growing concern of the global warming and the paper industry speeding the climate change, forces governments to make new strict environmental laws, and also the book readers start to realize the environmental benefits of e-books over printed books. Environmental activists get lot of publicity when campaigning for e-publishers and against paper industry.

In beginning of the 2008, United States and its allies attack to Iran and Syria, based on the information of terrorist collaboration by the governments. Because of the war, Russian disagrees with the methods used for war, and cuts off the gas to Europe as a respond.

In Christmas 2008, “the hit present” of the Christmas is an e-book reader and the sale rates are high especially in Europe, US and Japan.

2009
By the end of the 2009, when the e-book reader manufactures have seen promising sales figures , and many new e-book readers have come to the markets, the prices of the readers start to decrease. Traditional book publishers start to bring more e-books to the market and start to develop more interactive content to the e-books, including pictures, videos and sound.

E-book publishers are trying to promote their own e-book formats to be a break-through in the markets, but they are starting to realize that maybe on common standard has to be created before e-books can really take-off.

2010

In 2010, the most active e-book buyers are educational institutions, libraries and the readers in the age of 16-45. The e-publishers and e-book reader manufactures have finally agreed on one compatible e-book format, called open e-book format. When one standard format has been agreed, the publishers and e-book reader manufactures can focus more on the quality and features of their products, and the prices start decreasing.

Authors are becoming more concerned about their intellectual rights, and publishes and many large IT companies finally forced to start developing DRM that really secures copyrigths.

2011-2012

In 2012, the sales of the e-books reach the salse numbers of printed books in Europe, US and Japan. With the help of governmental support, libraries all over the world have increased the offering of the e-books, and the rent percentages of e-books and printed books are 50-50. The prices of the e-book readers have decreased remarkably in 5 years, and prices vary from €100-250, which is affordable to the majority of the people in developed countries.

In 2012, European Union starts to promote the e-book as a main facility for learning. Their goal is to cut costs in education, e-books are not environmentally friendly, the distribution is extremely convenient and updates for older books are totally inexpensive.

Google has gone into a criticized partnership with Amazon were they agreed upon sharing technology and content to able to provide E-Books for a much lower price than competitors.

In 2012, one standardized DRM system has been developed by publishers and leading IT companies that has agreed to make their system available at low cost and let many manage the DRM. More and more publishers begin to use this low cost DRM system. This standard then soon become the industry standard that the price of e-books continue to go down.

People have become more concerned about their privacy, and e-book stores have to focus on improving the privacy issues in next years.

2013-2015

Due to the e-book boom, the general interest in literacy has increased, and the active readers have started to create own communities for book reviews, ratings etc. Readers are now fully able to customize their own e-books, add own pictures, videos and sound to make an individual story out of every book.

On the Internet, active readers have become also active writers. Alone or together with the other literature fans, people can write and publish their own books online, and which the other readers can rate or write own versions to continue or change the story.

The number of traditional book stores has decreased last years by 40%, and some them have started “Starbooks” e-book cafes, offering a meeting point for literature fans. At the same time, number of e-book shops have increased by 50%.

2016-2017

In 2017, printed books are basically gone in the developed world, and only some types of the printed books are still published, for example art books and cooking books. Cheap e-book readers, designed especially for developing world have become popular in Asia, together with increased literacy rate. The next generations of e-book readers is coming, especially in Japan people are started to download and read their e-books on their smart mobile phones.

By now people are able to read their ebooks online but also have the download ability to read their books when there is no internet access available.

Scenario 2: E-books for Niches

Scenario 3: Paper, Paper, Paper

References

Known Projects and sites: (non-exaustive list)

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