https://www.scenariothinking.org/api.php?action=feedcontributions&user=130.115.190.111&feedformat=atomScenarioThinking - User contributions [en]2024-03-28T23:35:35ZUser contributionsMediaWiki 1.37.0https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Future_Sites_of_the_Internet&diff=998Future Sites of the Internet2004-11-29T18:11:50Z<p>130.115.190.111: </p>
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<div>Here we are posting sites that we believe gives us an indication of the future of the Internet<br />
<br />
[http://www.google.com Google] [[An example of simpler web sites]]<br />
<br />
[http://www.requiemforadream.com/ Requiem For A Dream] [[Best Movie Experience Website Ever!]]<br />
<br />
[http://www.absolut.com Absolut] An example of websites guiding viewers<br />
<br />
[[Future of the Internet]] A creative approach<br />
<br />
[http://www.horizoninteractiveawards.com/winners_showcase.htm]<br />
<br />
This is not the web site I have chosen. When you access this web page click on the link "Best of Category" in the column 2004. A new window will appear, select the link "Motiongraphx".<br />
If you have any problems of access, please let me know.<br />
<br />
Claudie</div>130.115.190.111https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Future_Sites_of_the_Internet&diff=997Future Sites of the Internet2004-11-29T18:11:14Z<p>130.115.190.111: </p>
<hr />
<div>Here we are posting sites that we believe gives us an indication of the future of the Internet<br />
<br />
[http://www.google.com Google] [[An example of simpler web sites]]<br />
<br />
[http://www.requiemforadream.com/ Requiem For A Dream] [[Best Movie Experience Website Ever!]]<br />
<br />
[http://www.absolut.com Absolut] An example of websites guiding viewers<br />
<br />
[[Future of the Internet]] A creative approach<br />
<br />
[http://www.horizoninteractiveawards.com/winners_showcase.htm]<br />
<br />
This is not the web site I have chosen. When you access this web page click on the link "Best of Category" in the column 2004. A new window will appear, select the link "Motiongraphx".<br />
If you have any problems of access please let me know.<br />
<br />
Claudie</div>130.115.190.111https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Future_Sites_of_the_Internet&diff=996Future Sites of the Internet2004-11-29T18:09:50Z<p>130.115.190.111: </p>
<hr />
<div>Here we are posting sites that we believe gives us an indication of the future of the Internet<br />
<br />
[http://www.google.com Google] [[An example of simpler web sites]]<br />
<br />
[http://www.requiemforadream.com/ Requiem For A Dream] [[Best Movie Experience Website Ever!]]<br />
<br />
[http://www.absolut.com Absolut] An example of websites guiding viewers<br />
<br />
[[Future of the Internet]] A creative approach<br />
<br />
[http://www.horizoninteractiveawards.com/winners_showcase.htm]<br />
<br />
This is not the web site I have chosen. When you access this web page please click on the link "Best of Category" in the column 2004. A new window will appear, please select the link "Motiongraphx".</div>130.115.190.111https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Worldwide_and_higher_lifelong_education&diff=12467Worldwide and higher lifelong education2004-11-29T15:19:40Z<p>130.115.190.111: </p>
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<div>== '''''Higher and Worldwide Lifelong Education''''' ==<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
== '''''Description:''''' ==<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
'''''As the artificial walls of our great universities come tumbling down through technology, and as electronic networks expand the reach of university campuses, the range of influence of higher education will increase. The teaching of the best professors…will be available...to anyone who wants to learn.''''' - John Sculley<br />
<br />
<br />
John Seely Brown (2001) that "learning is a remarkably social process" that occurs as the result "of a social framework that fosters learning" and not primarily as the result of `teaching.' It requires, especially in the development of new media to support learning, that "we must move far beyond the traditional view of teaching as delivery of information." (Howard Rheingold in Smart Mobs: The next social revolution; transforming cultures and communities in the age of instant access, 2003)<br />
<br />
<br />
The World Bank has since 1972 spent over thirty billion dollars in efforts to reduce poverty in the developing world, with little achieved because of a fundamental need for education before other projects will work. Developed nations spend $4-5,000 a year per child, the developing world $150 to $200 per child. The only solution would be to use the Internet to provide essential learning resources to desperately poor areas and schools, especially wherever existing schools are inadequate or do not exist. (Swahn 2001)<br />
<br />
<br />
As humanity moves into a time of global education, planners need blueprints for lifelong educational systems and structures so that new possibilities can be examined to provide adequate education for everyone on earth in the 21st century.<br />
<br />
<br />
UNESCO proposed that each higher education institution should define its mission according to the present and future needs of society. It should be conscious of the fact that lifelong learning is essential for any country or region to reach the necessary level of sustainable and environmentally sound economic and social development, cultural creativity nourished by better knowledge and understanding of the cultural heritage, higher living standards, and internal and international harmony and peace, based on human rights, democracy, tolerance and mutual respect.<br />
<br />
<br />
Today, the driving force of lifelong education presents underlying ideas:<br />
<br />
1) UNESCO and the International Telecommunications Union have declared 'education for all' as a goal, and even though it may take decades to achieve that objective, much is now underway to accomplish 'lifelong learning for all'. The development for everyone in the world of adequate lifelong learning, needed for the information age, may require large-scale research and experimentation of a scope--like that spent on health and NASA--which humanity is not prepared to fund. So we need to examine less expensive efforts that can be accomplished through the Internet.<br />
<br />
2) Public ignorance about learning in schools and the wrong perception of the low value of learning in daily life as seen on television has been noted. "Commercial society seems to discourage learning and encourage ignorance--focusing more on entertainment- in our everyday settings. Our society seems unable to accommodate multiple perspectives". Spector (2002)<br />
<br />
(3) Planners should acknowledge their fundamental ignorance, that all of us really know very little, at least beyond our own specialization. Even the greatest scientists and scholars, however expert they are in their limited area, need to recognize how little they yet know. Perhaps we have moved from the childish era of the human race into an adolescent era, and one characteristic of adolescence is being `know it alls' who do know yet recognize our need for humility in the face of a vast outer and inner space universes humans are only beginning to explore. The antidote to human ignorance is not defensive arguments about our positions, but a readiness for much more research and experimentation.<br />
<br />
4) On technology for global lifelong learning even in the industrialized world, we must look ahead at least two decades since educators need to plan now for what is coming or be swamped by it. In these early years of the 21st century the useful thing about many new technologies may be that they are forcing educators to re-think what they are doing and to get to work on larger-scale holistic research on learning. It is important that researchers use and develop technologies that can best help learning at all of life' stages to achieve stated and future goals and they need to see where they must revise and update those goals.<br />
<br />
<br />
From these ideas fundamental issues raise:<br />
<br />
Is education only for an elite?<br />
<br />
Shall the poor continue to get poorer, proving profits by very low-cost, even slave-type labor? Or can the universities lead out in creating a global learning system, providing education for all, to create vast new markets that can improve the whole global economy, as online skills training help the poor get adequate incomes to enter the marketplace?<br />
<br />
Many who begin to look at possible futures for global lifelong learning are frustrated. Can integrated, holistic, well-planned alternatives be proposed as a place to begin discussion and planning?<br />
<br />
Are entirely new learning theories and global structures required?<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
== '''''Enablers:''''' ==<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Financing of higher education as a public service'''<br />
<br />
The funding of higher education requires both public and private resources. The role of the state remains essential in this regard.<br />
The diversification of funding sources reflects the support that society provides to higher education and must be further strengthened to ensure the development of higher education, increase its efficiency and maintain its quality and relevance. Public support for higher education and research remains essential to ensure a balanced achievement of educational and social missions.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The accelerating explosion of knowledge'''<br />
<br />
The vast amount of data and information will challenge all the world’s universities, working in collaboration, to manage oceans of data, to organize it, to transform it into knowledge and wisdom and into useful learning. Perhaps something marvelous is-in a decade or two-going to come out the work reported, for example, at the conferences of the American Association for Information Science, new ways to coordinate the vast data seen in the information explosion.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The accelerating explosion of technologies'''<br />
<br />
Piece by piece, the necessary physical elements are fitting into place that could make the dream of universal access to all human knowledge become reality. Ever smaller and cheaper computers, wireless internet connections, huge linked databases, and widely available standardized software are all helping break down the barriers of time and expense that once kept individuals isolated and communities in conflict. If enough humans are willing to cooperate, to value lasting benefit over short-term profit, and prefer challenging activity to easy entertainment, the worldwide lifelong education may truly help transform global society.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Digital Wireless Broadband'''<br />
<br />
Communication speed a hundred times faster than available at the turn of the century should also make it possible to greatly reduce costs of education delivery.<br />
Combinations of technologies, such as satellites and new smart digital radio connections, can bring the World Wide Web, and whatever succeeds it, to educators and researchers anywhere in the world at affordable cost. Indeed, digital wireless radio may well be the more affordable and better way to make possible the active participation of developing world scientists in the global research community as well as making it possible to bring adequate education to everyone on the planet.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Global distance/learning'''<br />
<br />
The international electronic learning distance or distributed education accelerates. In June 2000 the World Bank announced that it was taking seriously the likelihood that global electronic education is the best antidote for eliminating poverty in the developing world.<br />
Already the Chronicle of Higher Education, Sept 19, 2003, reported a survey that 57 percent (of higher education institutions) said that Internet-based courses were already at least equivalent to lecture hall counterparts in educational quality.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Collective intelligence'''<br />
<br />
The mobilization of hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of scholarly and scientific minds in partnership with technologies like the internet may enable and direct the crucial partnership between human minds and the artificial intelligence of machines needed to generate worldwide lifelong education.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
== '''''Inhibitors:''''' ==<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The cost of worldwide lifelong education'''<br />
<br />
Despite forthcoming successful ways to reduce drastically the costs of exchanging courses and lectures, some countries still cannot afford even the initial demonstrations and experimentation; and evidently many national education officials in developing countries are not yet convinced that distance learning is worth its sacrificial cost.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The population explosion'''<br />
<br />
Soon half of the world’s population is going to be under age 20, and already there are a billion young people who ought to have higher education.<br />
Globally by the year 2000 there were more than 160 million children without access to primary schooling simply because of population growth. In much of sub-Saharan Africa and in many low income countries elsewhere, the provision of universal primary education for rapidly growing numbers of children remains a long-term challenge.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Illiteracy'''<br />
<br />
Alongside each of us in this space are more than six billion others, including illiterate people in the rain forest of Brazil, and some of the most disadvantaged, underprivileged people in the world in Africa.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Unwilligness to learn'''<br />
<br />
A recent study reported that young people in Spain are no longer in the habit of reading. More than 90% of the students surveyed reported that they read only when required to do so. Without the desire to read and learn, we can get no help from any information system, however rich and easy to use it is.<br />
The fact that very few young people read any more (statistics in McLemee 2004) is in part the result of overpowering technologies, such as gaming, and is also a cause for their increasing use in education.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Need of new teachers'''<br />
<br />
The UNESCO 2002 "Education for All Monitoring Report" said that only 87 countries might be able to meet the `education for all' goal by 2015. By 2002 UNESCO reported that many countries with the largest populations were actually falling further behind. It was estimated that 35 million new teachers would be needed. So we ask how automated tutoring systems on the Internet may be used where there are not teachers or where teachers need online help because they are not well educated.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''"Learning in our society is bleak"'''<br />
<br />
How a social revolution in learning can be encouraged when learning in our society is bleak? There is a need for a renaissance in thinking where learning is willingly and willfully embedded in every activity of our culture.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Software for human/Machine collaboration'''<br />
<br />
Many educators feel swamped with too much inadequate software, lacking time to examine all education packages themselves, yet dissatisfied with choices others make for them.<br />
Dertouzos (2000) proposed that computers-that are not yet `human-centered'-seriously limit educational uses of the Internet and Web.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Information overload'''<br />
<br />
Claire’s school offers instruction in technology, provides her with her own computer and with Internet access to any information she needs or to any course that her school does not offer. She suffers, however, with serious panacea overload, caused by technology that is too complex (designed by engineers and not primarily for learning) and by a volume of online resources that are overwhelming.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
== '''''Paradigms''''' ==<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
- Education is transferring information into the mind of the passive learner often by memorization.<br />
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<br />
- Education is thinking creatively, communicating, learning and making decisions in new and technology-empowered ways.<br />
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<br />
- Education is an expensive sector to maintain for countries. The quality of learning in many developing nations declined with the deterioration of the economy and the presence of huge foreign debt.<br />
<br />
<br />
- Information technology will make it possible to provide learning and needed skills for all. Technologies together with a global distance learning network may be the best and most affordable way to bring lifelong quality learning to many of the world’s deprived areas.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
== '''''Experts:''''' ==<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Parker Rossman- former vice president of the Global/Pacific Electronic University Consortium.<br />
<br />
<br />
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
== '''''Timing:''''' ==<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
- The ancient Greeks first envisioned the "comprehensive organization of all knowledge", and some of their dream came true. It began with writing- collecting oral wisdom and tradition in great manuscript collections like the ancient Library of Alexandria.<br />
<br />
<br />
- Later, the Middle Age saw the founding of universities, where masters of lore and rhetoric could gather in relative safety to extend and spread their knowledge among dedicated students by means of books and lectures. The invention of movable type and the subsequent spread of printing made information cheaper and more portable in the form of books, pamphlets, broadsides, and newspapers.<br />
<br />
<br />
- Then the eighteenth century saw the first attempts to systematically assemble important technical and scientific information in uniform bound volumes as a universal printed reference or encyclopedia.<br />
Since the industrial revolution, ever growing-demand for knowledge has continued to push learning into new dimensions. Where speech and printed text were once enough to answer most questions satisfactorily, tomorrow’s learning materials need to be diversified to include new media.<br />
<br />
<br />
- At the turn of the twenty-first century, learners could watch a video tape, or downloaded video files of a lecture or the demonstration of a technical procedure, then replay segments to help them master difficult material. <br />
<br />
<br />
- The end of the twentieth century was also a time comparable to the twelfth century when the rise of the university in Western Europe helped enable the Renaissance. <br />
Now to be realistic, in examining possibilities for learning for all, we must admit that in the foreseeable future there will be some who are especially privileged in education; such those whose geographical location provides access to a resident campus, and those who are leading out ahead in research and experimentation. Not every student in the world can work alongside an Einstein, yet won't it be possible for any gifted learner, anywhere to attend a virtual campus for possibilities not yet adequately foreseen or imagined? The milieu of learning for decades ahead could depend on the technical architecture adopted for the emerging mobile and pervasive infrastructure" to be developed in the next decade or so.<br />
<br />
<br />
== '''''Web Resources:''''' ==<br />
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<br />
http://ecolecon.missouri.edu/globalresearch/<br />
<br />
http://www.education.unesco.org/educprog/wche/presentation.htm<br />
<br />
http://www.unesco.org/education/efa/index.shtml<br />
<br />
(There are tons of reports about the future of education and technologies!)<br />
<br />
http://www.learndev.org/<br />
<br />
http://www.hekate.org/<br />
<br />
(We need to be a member to get acess to materials but it seems very useful for our project)<br />
<br />
http://www.itdl.org/index.htm<br />
<br />
http://itdl.org/Journal/Sep_04/uof.htm<br />
<br />
http://ecolecon.missouri.edu/globalresearch/chapters/subjectindex.htm<br />
<br />
(Alphabetical index of web links related to the subject of higher and worldwide lifelong education)<br />
<br />
<br />
[['''''Sources of this work:''''']]<br />
<br />
<br />
Rossman P. (2004). Cosmopedia: Tomorrow’s World of Learning. '''The futurist'''. May-June 2004.<br />
<br />
http://ecolecon.missouri.edu/globalresearch/. Last accessed 2004/11/25</div>130.115.190.111https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Storytelling&diff=464Storytelling2004-11-10T17:23:54Z<p>130.115.190.111: </p>
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<div>Story telling is an ancient human art, which many of us have assigned to professionals -- novels, film-makers, television writers and so on. However, each of us can learn to tell good stories and can use stories to understand intricate situations more completely and to move people to a different understanding of the world in which we live. In this class, we will use the skills of storytelling and oral societies to help us identify a research agenda for creating the scenarios we need. <br />
<br />
<br />
In preparation for the class on Thursday 4 November, I would like each person to prepare the following:<br />
<br />
1) Think of a story that you can tell in 3 minutes. <br />
<br />
2) Think of a saying that is still in use.<br />
<br />
3) Think of an unwritten law you have seen working in your family or your workplace or school.<br />
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4) Think of something in society around you that you have noticed but cannot explain. This should be something that you know is important because it gives you a physical sensation, such as a tingling in your spin, or a twitch between your shoulder blades or a punch in your stomach. <br />
<br />
5) Finally, if you could ask the Oracle at Delphi anything about the future of the internet, what would you like to know?<br />
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Two national, civil society scenario projects you might find interesting can be found on the web at:<br />
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[http://www.tutafika.org] Tanzania<br />
[http://www.kenyascenarios.org]Kenya<br />
<br />
Take a look. Can you tell which one of these was the first project we did in East Africa?<br />
<br />
See you all tomorrow evening,<br />
<br />
Barbara Heinzen<br />
<br />
-----------<br />
<br />
CLASS PLAN - storytelling & scenario research <br />
4 November 2004 <br />
<br />
Warm up exercises <br />
1)Blind-men’s hands <br />
inarticulate knowledge, unique & intricate<br />
<br />
2)Tell 2 stories (3 minutes each) <br />
Which held our attention best? Why?<br />
<br />
Introduction <br />
<br />
1)oral v literate societies<br />
log-hammer-chisel-saw: which is the odd one out?<br />
<br />
2)Scenarios as a political process: the politics of learning<br />
Assembly line research versus pragmatic integrating research<br />
<br />
3)Scenarios and the facilitation of learning using the skills of oral society<br />
Good scenario work requires good facilitation for learning<br />
<br />
Who is this for? <br />
1)Who is this for?<br />
Is there an imaginary client: person & organisation?<br />
<br />
2)What do we/the client want to achieve? Why are scenarios needed?<br />
Organisational cohesion? Managing uncertainty? Shared learning? <br />
<br />
3)What is the official future? In this group of people?<br />
What important assumptions about the future and the ways things work does this client make? <br />
Existing plans, myths & stories – what do they tell us?<br />
<br />
Asking good questions <br />
<br />
1)Collect on three different walls/white boards<br />
Sayings<br />
Unwritten laws<br />
Oracle questions<br />
<br />
2)Silently study all three walls separately & together<br />
What do we notice?<br />
What do we learn?<br />
<br />
3)What research questions should we ask? <br />
<br />
<br />
BREAK! <br />
<br />
<br />
Storytelling & the “Felt Sense” <br />
Work in 3-4 small groups <br />
The Felt Sense – your physical response to intricacy.<br />
See [http://www.focusing.org]for more information about using the Felt Sense to understand intricate situations.<br />
<br />
1)Write down & share all “Felt Sense” observations in group<br />
A felt sense observation is something you have noticed, to which your body reacts, but you cannot explain (Put each observation out, visibly, once it has been explained. <br />
Keep observations visible to help develop your group’s story)<br />
<br />
2)Use all the “Felt Sense” observations to create 1 group story <br />
<br />
3)Tell your story to the rest of the class <br />
<br />
4)What research questions fall out from these stories? <br />
<br />
What Research Agenda & Organising Question? <br />
NOTE: THIS DISCUSSION DID NOT TAKE PLACE AS WE RAN OUT OF TIME <br />
<br />
1)What are the most interesting questions? <br />
By logic<br />
By gut feel – ‘felt sense’<br />
<br />
2)How best might you answer the different questions? What approaches?<br />
<br />
<br />
------------<br />
<br />
ONE PAGE ASSIGNMENT <br />
<br />
Contribute to the WIKI<br />
<br />
1)please put all ‘felt sense questions on the wiki<br />
<br />
2)where the notes have survived, please put the story illustrating these questions on the wiki<br />
<br />
<br />
------------<br />
<br />
<br />
'''''GROUP Daan, JuanCarles, Katsuya, Lars and Ute'''''<br />
<br />
* Felt sense questions<br />
Lars:...<br />
<br />
Ute: Why do people in Germany think so negatively about the consequences of the economic downturn and why do they not believe in their own influencing power? <br />
<br />
Daan: Why are people in the Netherlands increasingly collectively depressed after a disaster or accident that takes place in society?<br />
<br />
JuanCarles:...<br />
<br />
Katsuya: Why do people in Japan tend to consider world real pain as a virtual one or somebody else's problem?<br />
<br />
* Story<br />
A Japanese travelling around the world. He first arrives in Denmark. What do the people say here?<br />
<br />
LARS<br />
<br />
Then he decides to go to Germany. He assumes that everything will be in order there and he is looking forward. But unfortunately the economic downturn has influenced the people severely. Everyone is complaining about the difficulties to find and maintain a job, to have enough money and to secure the overall wealth. People fear the consequences of the downturn so much that they are all in a deep depression. <br />
<br />
Then the Japanese traveler asks: “Where should I go next?” The German responds that he should go to the Netherlands, since that country is well known for its hospitality, tolerance and open-mindedness. The Dutch would definitely welcome him friendly and treat him in a good manner. The Japanese traveler thus takes the train to the Netherlands and sees from the window a flat and green landscape. And many cows. He gets off in Amsterdam and walks from the railway station towards the city center, the Dam. A couple of hundred meters later he gets stuck in a massive crowd, all cheering and making a lot of noise. Strange the traveler thinks, and he asks a person what is going on in the city. “Is there a party or something?” “No, to the contrary” the Dutchman says. “We are all protesting as someone was shot today because he spoke for what he thought (filmmaker Theo van Gogh was killed by a Muslim fundamentalist). Apparently, people don’t have the freedom of speech anymore in Holland. Therefore, we are angry!” The Japanese then asks: “Do you think it would be wise for me to stay here?” The Dutchman responds that in his opinion he should immediately leave as this country is not as tolerant as it used to be. Strange, the traveler thinks, a country with such a reputation in such depressed mood. <br />
<br />
“So, where should I go next?” he asks. The Dutchman responds that he should go to South, Spain, since in that country the sun always shines and life is good. Thus the Japanese traveler takes the plain to Madrid to get some positive energy. No knowing what to expect and experience he met a spanish person during his visit to the coutry. The Spanish told him that he was pretty disapointed of the recent news he got from the newspaper. Some terrist attack was prepared some days ago, and as a consequence a person die. All the media attention was in this poor victim, and a lot of politicians were discussing on the last days what to do to improve the situtation and to finnish the activity of the terrorist group ETA. But the Spannish man was reflecting about the value of the life, because at the same time that this victim of the terrorism died, other hundreds of persons die on subdevelop countries as a counsequence of lack of basic medice and food, and they do not get any attention and any european politician is speaking about them. The Japanese understood that was not environment that he wanted for the furute.<br />
<br />
Finally he goes back home to Japan. Life, it seemed to him, was very safe and secure in Japan. However, he has found that Cabinet Office survey was showing that 55.9% of Japanese thought that Japan was not a safe or secure country to live in anymore. For example, it is common knowledge among Japanese people that crime in Japan has been increased and drugs in Japan are fast becoming a social problem. Moreover, according to the Japanese government, if present population trends continue, by the end of the next millennium, Tokyo will be a ghost town, and Japan will be empty. The country's population will be just 500 by the year 3000, and just one by 3500. When that person dies, the Japanese nation will be no more - a mathematical CERTAINTY if Japanese women carry on having just 1.4 children each on average. He really wants to know what will happen in future Japan and in the future world. (to be continued in the scenario thinking)<br />
<br />
-----------<br />
<br />
<br />
ONE PAGE ASSIGNMENT FOR EVERYONE<br />
<br />
3)Look at all the sayings, unwritten laws, questions for the Oracle and your own group’s “felt sense” questions and story.<br />
<br />
4)What are the critical research questions you need to ask as you shape your scenario work?<br />
<br />
Please put your research questions here. [[Research questions]]<br />
<br />
----------------<br />
<br />
CLASS NOTES OF WHAT WE DISCUSSED<br />
<br />
Class notes – Storytelling – 4 November 2004 RSM<br />
<br />
Who is this scenario exercise for? What is his ‘Official Future’?<br />
<br />
IT IS FOR DANIEL (& for us)<br />
<br />
DANIEL’S OFFICIAL FUTURE<br />
WORLD WILL BE RULED BY WIKI<br />
HE WILL GET HIS BOOK PUBLISHED<br />
HE WILL BE THE NEXT DEAN OF RSM<br />
HE WILL STILL COMMUTE FROM AMSTERDAM<br />
HE WILL HAVE ENOUGH HAIR TO PUT IN A PONYTAIL<br />
<br />
Our official future<br />
MBAs lead to better jobs<br />
Economy will be same in 2 months<br />
More volatile economy in next 5 years<br />
World will be a more dangerous place in next 5 years<br />
(a minority voice – it will be safer)<br />
<br />
What do we want to achieve with this scenario exercise?<br />
<br />
WHAT DANIEL WANTS:<br />
WRITE A BOOK<br />
PUBLISH ARTICLES IN THE FT<br />
WANTS THE CLASS TO LEARN HOW TO DO SCENARIOS<br />
WANTS TO TEST THE WIKI<br />
<br />
What we want to achieve?<br />
Learn to do scenarios so I can apply it later<br />
Be convinced this is really good so I can convince my org.<br />
In several years time, can I see that we got it right?<br />
Sell this technique to McKinsey or Boston Consulting<br />
Pass the class<br />
Become foremost experts re the Internet<br />
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List common sayings, unwritten laws & questions to the oracle at Delphi<br />
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SAYINGS<br />
1. You better have one bird in the hand than 10 in the sky (dutch)<br />
2. Don’t make a storm in a water glass<br />
3. When it rains it pours<br />
4. Turkish: Ates olmayan yerden duman cikmaz (if there is smoke, there is always fire)<br />
5. Taking old cows from the ditch (bringing up old business unnecessarily)<br />
6. End of the road, bombs to the eyebrows, terminal – (Israeli slang expressions for something that is great)<br />
7. What’s up! (American ad for beer)<br />
8. Whether you can make things happen depends on the fate instead of yourself.<br />
9. Even a rich man can fall.<br />
10. Even a monkey can fall from the trees. (both expressions warning people to take care, to not slip up)<br />
11. Si vis pacem, para bellum (plan for peace prepare for war)<br />
12. Big words and fat meat don’t get stuck in the throat.<br />
13. When it rains on the priest it drips on the clerk.<br />
14. L’habit de fait pas le moine. – Appearances are sometimes deceptive, don’t judge by appearances.<br />
15. Spuhe-mi cuaine te admir, ca sa’-ti spun cine esti. Tell me who are your true friends in for order for me to tell you who you really are.<br />
16. No diguis que esta acabat fins que no hi siqui al sac I beu eliagat. (don’t say it is finished until it is in the bag and well tied.<br />
17. Don’t make a mountain out of a molehill (Dutch equivalent: don’t make an elephant out of a fly)<br />
18. Don’t sell the hide until you skin the bear.<br />
19. It’s as simple as that … isn’t it?<br />
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UNWRITTEN LAWS<br />
1. Jante (Norwegian expression to say no one is better than anyone else, even when very fortunate)<br />
2. Eat whatever’s in the fridge/ don’t plan for meals<br />
3. Wash your hands after a bathroom visit<br />
4. Standing in a queue is entirely optional (Israel)<br />
5. Father and mother always sit at the same place when eating.<br />
6. Respect elderly people<br />
7. When your girlfriend asks, “Do these jeans make me look fat?” Always say No!<br />
8. Never sit next to a stranger if there is a free seat somewhere else.<br />
9. If the doorbell rings unexpectedly, we’re not at home.<br />
10. Always put the toilet seat down.<br />
11. Never challenge your boss in public<br />
12. Use underwear<br />
13. Say thank you when people give you something.<br />
14. Always complain about life even if you are enjoying it!<br />
15. It’s a taboo not to buy drinks when you are in a ‘round’!<br />
16. Raise your hand if you want to speak in class<br />
17. Appealing to Big boss without saying to Supervisor, requires/leads you to ‘harakiri’.<br />
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QUESTIONS FOR THE ORACLE<br />
1. Is it going to be widely available in undeveloped countries?<br />
2. Will there be fore SPAM mail?<br />
3. Who will control the internet?<br />
4. What is the future of the internet?<br />
5. Will we ever be able to separate our personal lives from the internet or will it keep on following us?<br />
6. Will we be able to work at home in the next 5 year period?<br />
7. Will we be using IfFi-based mobile phones in 5 years time?<br />
8. What will be the dominant language on the Internet?<br />
9. Will we need human memory in the futre (2015) or will it simply be stored on the internet?<br />
10. In the next five years, when does the stock price of Google reach the highest point and when lowest?<br />
11. Will Hillary be president in 2008?<br />
12. Is the internet a sustainable tool? Won’t there be another one that will revolutionize again the way we communicate, live, do business? <br />
13. How are anonymous chat websites controlled?<br />
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What research agenda do we see from these exercises?<br />
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Research questions based on sayings & unwritten laws<br />
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1. How might social interaction be replaced by the internet?<br />
2. How do you build trust on the internet?<br />
3. When, how might the internet have its own saying, because it has become a natural part of our lives?<br />
4. Mala hierba saying è Watch out for hackers! What is the future of hacking?<br />
5. Appearances are deceptive è What will be the meaning of identify on the internet?<br />
6. Will internet change anyone’s beliefs?<br />
7. Will there be laws for the internet (written and unwritten)?<br />
8. Unwritten internet law: don’t send questionable content to a work email address, but to hotmail address instead.</div>130.115.190.111